Fenomén Putin
Klokaní skok popularity. Experti v šoku. Američania Rusku nerozumejú. Rusi dekadentné západné "hodnoty" odmietajú. Kľúč? Putin je Rus.
10. 1. 2015
DMITRIJ SEMIONOV v exkluzívnom komentári pre v ysvetľuje, prečo antiputinovská kampaň Západu má opačné výsledky, než washingtonskí a bruselskí stratégovia novej studenej vojny predpokladali
Už je to 15 rokov, čo Západ nie a nie nájsť odpoveď na otázku "Who is mister Putin?". Usporadúvajú sa vedecké konferencie a sympóziá, ktorých sa zúčastňuje početní "experti z Ruska". Putinovu moc porovnávajú s tou cársku, zatiaľ čo jeho samého z nejakého dôvodu sa Stalinom.
Z týchto porovnaní potom väčšinou vyvodzujú primitívne závery, že sa Rusom vraj cnie po pevnej ruke, po okovách, z ktorých sa oslobodili, lebo majú otrockú psychológiu a tak podobne. A práve kvôli takýmto falošným záverom je potom Západ vedľa ako tá jedľa. Dumá o Rusku podľa úslovia Podľa seba súdim teba . Odpoveď na otázku "Kto je to vlastne ten Putin?" Mu preto stále uniká ako teplo komínom.
Šok
Pre západné - v prvom rade pre americké - politológmi a sociológmi predstavuje úplný šok skutočnosť, že napriek prechodnému zníženiu životnej úrovne (rubeľ za necelý polrok stratil takmer 40 percent hodnoty), napriek zúženiu sortimentu v moskovských obchodoch a rastu číslic na cenovkách, sa 87 percent Rusov nielen nechystá svojho prezidenta, tak nenávideného Spojenými štátmi a EÚ, zvrhnúť, ale prakticky bez výhrad podporujú jeho vnútornú aj zahraničnú politiku. Ako je to možné? Táto otázka tiež zostáva bez odpovede. Pokúsme sa na ňu teda odpovedať sami.
Spomínam si, ako pred pol rokom tak preslávení "experti na Rusko" ako Stephen Cohen, Mark Galeotti a Joshua Tacker, rovnako ako profesor newyorskej univerzity, historik Yanni Kotsonis, ktorý je zároveň šéfom Jordan centra pre štúdium Ruska pri tejto univerzite, ako boli všetci títo na slovo vzatí odborníci celý Tumpach z toho, ako sa mohlo Vladimirovi Putinovi znova podariť zvíťaziť vo voľbách. Experti sa vtedy zhodli aspoň na tom, že "Putin ako osobnosť je Západom zbytočne démonizovaný".
Ako to ten Putin robí?
Tak zase raz objavili Ameriku. Dokonca aj veľká časť obyčajných - teda prirodzene uvažujúcich - Američanov už dávno pochopila, čo ich elity odmietajú prijať. Rovnako tak mnohí Európania, ak sa riadi sedliackym rozumom, chápu ruského prezidenta ako najefektívnejšieho politika našej doby. Preto jeden z členov spomínanej expertnej skupiny prišiel s ďalšou hypotézou, a síce že Vladimíra Putina vraj podporovali iba tí, ktorí majú ešte v živej pamäti hrôzy mafiánskych 90. rokov.
Teraz už vraj Putin ale dávno nie je tým, kým býval, a jeho stabilná podpora je odsúdená k poklesu. Lenže zase sa stal pravý opak: uplynulo iba šesť mesiacov a rating ruského prezidenta vyletel do doteraz neznámej výšky. Kto zo súčasných amerických a európskych politických lídrov môže snívať o podpore bezmála 90 percent občanov svojej krajiny?
Nezabudli históriu
Renomovaní experti si ku svojej škode nevšimli, že odpoveď, alebo presnejšie odpovede, ležia na povrchu. Aby ho človek spoznal, stačí sa dať na chvíľu do reči s obyčajnými Rusmi na ulici, a nie konštruovať teórie "pádu putinovského režimu" na základe názorov nepočetnej a vnútorne rozdrobenej ruskej, tak zvanej "bielo opantanej" opozície. Napriek tomu, že väčšina jej lídrov dostáva prostredníctvom tzv. Mimovládnych organizácií "granty na rozvoj demokracie" priamo od amerického ministerstva zahraničia.
Rusi by odpovedali: samozrejme, že sa nikto nechceme vracať do ničotných 90. rokov. Iste, od tej doby vyrástla nová, "sýta" generácia Rusov? Napriek tomu však najaktívnejšími voliči sú práve tí, ktorí majú dnes cez tridsať, a všetko si pamätajú. A spájajú si tie mafiánske "deväťdesiate" s bezchrbtovým panovaním Putinovho predchodcu Borisa Jeľcina, ktorého - ako sa dnes všeobecne vie - vodili ako bábku priamo z americkej ambasády v Moskve.
Ale ani to nie je to hlavné.
Znovuzrodenie
Prvýkrát za posledných 20 rokov, od okamihu rozpadu Sovietskeho zväzu, sa v krajine objavil líder, ktorý pod tlakom USA nezohol chrbticu. Potom, čo Rusi získali dostatok všetkého toho, čoho sa im za čias ZSSR nedostávalo, a čo si v duchu často spájali s USA, dokázali oddeliť zrno od pliev a znovu sa zamyslieť nad tým, čo znamenajú ony vnucované "demokratické hodnoty". Ukázalo sa, že ruská kultúra a ruská morálka nie je pripravená tieto "hodnoty" prijať za svoje.
Vladimír Putin za svojej vlády zatočil - a občas poriadne tvrdo - s tými, ktorí za Jeľcina takmer otvorene rozkrádali bohatstvo a rozpočet krajiny: časť dovtedy všemocných a nepostihnuteľných oligarchov sa dala na útek, ďalšiu časť dostala, čo si zaslúžila. A napríklad kauzu Chodorovského otvorene podporila veľká časť Rusov.
Rozumie sa samo sebou, že svoju úlohu zohrali aj udalosti v Gruzínsku a na Kryme. Znovuzrodenie armády, za ktorú už sa Rusi nemusia hanbiť, ako za Jeľcina, ale môžu na ňu byť hrdí. A naviac upokojenie Kaukazu - to je všetko Putinovho zásluha.
A to už sa dostávame k tomu hlavnému.
Rusko je na strádanie zvyknuté
Všetky strasti, do ktorých sa Západ tak usilovne snažil uvrhnúť Rusko za posledný polrok, si Rusi nespájajú s Putinom, ale ... práve so Západom. "Európa nám ukázala svoju pravú tvár," - to je zásadný záver, ku ktorému dospela väčšina Rusov. A pretože nie je to za posledných desaťročí rokov prvýkrát, je potrebné to vziať na vedomie - a urobiť z toho patričné závery: Už máme predsa skúsenosti so Železnou oponou, sa sankciami, s nepríjemným pocitom "sami proti celému svetu" - všetky tieto skúšky ale našu krajinu len ďalej spojili a posilnili.
A že je dnes drahý dolár? V Rusku si ešte pamätáme na dobu, kedy bol jeden "zelený" za 6000 (!) Rubľov. A prežili sme to v zdraví. Aj "čierny utorok", i default, aj cunami svetovej ekonomickej krízy. A predsa sme silnejší ako pred tým. Za posledných najmenej 300 rokov európskeho skúmania tajomného Ruska by aspoň Európania snáď už mohli konečne začať niečo chápať.
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